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Monday, January 18, 2010

Why China Is Not A Super Power

The Very British Dude has some excellent reasons why China is not a super power and why China will not become a super power anytime in the very near future. He asserts:

"Of course china is a country with VAST potential. But the assumption that China is the next Hegemonic superpower seems lazy to me. Remember they have a population an order of magnitude larger than our own, but have only just passed the UK in total size of the economy (with a little help from our ex-chancellor nobbling ours). They may be catching up fast, but there is still a LONG way to go. Both economically and militarily, China is still dwarfed by the USA."

Read the full article here.

And when you're done reading it, cruise back over to the Humble Libertarian for your moment of Zen. Oh yeah- Men Without Hats singing "Living in China:"


  1. Very interesting- and informative.

    You're really out there scouring up some good material... nice find!

  2. I think investment in China will slow... Investors are already concerned about a 'China bubble'.

  3. Reaganite Republican- not a problem at all! You can scour quite well yourself- I just used some good stuff from your site as reference material for my recent article on Scott Brown. Sadly you and I seem to disagree on what his victory means. Ah well, there is place for disagreement between reasonable minds.

    Jackart- not a problem. Thanks for the excellent analysis. It's good to hear someone bucking the worn out "China is a threat to us all" meme.

    Todd- yeah, there are several risk factors that would worry me as an investor in China, but then again I have got to say that I don't know that there's a "China bubble" to speak of.

    The way they save, invest, and grow seems unlike a bubble to me. They manufacture and export heavily and create real value, not just rising speculative prices.

  4. From today's NYT:

    The Chinese authorities signaled Wednesday that bank lending would slow significantly this year and reportedly instructed some banks to curb loans — the latest in a series of moves designed to forestall inflation and stave off bubbles in the stock and property markets.

    Trade imbalances are bad either way you go.

    If you export goods - you IMPORT money

    Money supply going up causes inflation.

    Inflation causes bubble.

  5. I think that's a bit of an oversimplification and perhaps equivocation.

  6. it is very over-simplified.

    and if I really knew what I was talking about on the economy - I feel I should be doing much better at it.