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Saturday, April 2, 2011

March Madness and Libya Game Theory

It's probably safe to assume the United States has genius game theory tacticians working hard to determine all possible potentialities regarding the Libya conflict. It's also probably safe to assume that Obama acted "exactly as he was supposed to" - given that evidence.

Here's the problem. Our best evidence, analysts and statisticians for the NCAA tournament didn't have a VCU-Butler semi-final game. In fact, this match up was a statistical impossibility. And it happened.

Now, I know what you're thinking. Our foreign policy game theory intelligence is probably better than the Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings. But you know what else is different? The fact that the number of factors playing in Libya is probably in the trillions.

How naive do we have to be to think we can predict beyond a blind crap shoot what "next" is going to look like over there? Oh, but our "world conscience" tells us we have to act? Not if we're never right about stuff like this, and if we're certain our actions will have completely unforeseen, unintended and terrifying consequences.

Eric Olsen,
Regular Columnist, THL
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