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Monday, August 8, 2011

Striking Distance: Ron Paul is polling where John McCain was at this point in the 2008 campaign

At this point, no journalist should be allowed to get away with calling Ron Paul's presidential candidacy a "long shot" bid. The most recent polling data has Ron Paul in fourth place as such:

Mitt Romney: 22%
Rick Perry: 18%
Michele Bachmann: 16%
Ron Paul: 10%

In August of 2007, at this same point in the last presidential election cycle with fifteen months before the general election, guess who was polling at fourth place with statistically the same numbers as Ron Paul? Yup-- John McCain:

Rudy Giuliani: 32%
Fred Thompson: 19%
Mitt Romney: 14%
John McCain: 11%

Cool huh? Notice "front runner" Rudy Giuliani just fell off the map entirely when it actually came time for Republican voters to enter the ballot box and seriously consider voting for a Northeastern liberal. The same could easily happen for Mitt Romney.

More interestingly, we can now say that as a matter of scientific polling and statistical fact, that Ron Paul has just as much chance of winning the 2012 Republican Primary as John McCain had of winning the 2008 Republican Primary at this point in the campaign season... and John McCain won.

Major hat tip to Gary C. Huggins for compiling this information and connecting the dots. The implications are truly incredible.

Wes Messamore,
Editor in Chief, THL
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