"The story after Tuesday will be about Romney and whether he’s closer to 30% than 40%. If it’s closer to or above 40% the inevitability argument will really get loud. There just isn’t precedent for a candidate winning Iowa and New Hampshire but losing the nomination."
But this is a year for setting precedents. I have to point out that while Romney's back-to-back wins in New Hampshire and Iowa are a little troubling, the truth is that no Republican Primary in history has ever looked like this one. Early states still matter, but never have they mattered so little. This is the most "back-loaded" GOP contest in forty years and has the fewest winner-take-all states and the most delegates up for grabs by congressional district rather than by entire states.
We've got a loooong primary ahead of us. It's mathematically impossible to completely secure the nomination until June after California's primary. The more they've gotten to know the candidates, the more Republican voters have rejected each in turn. We've got plenty of time for them to really get to know Mitt Romney enough to let the already extant discontent fester into full-blown rejection of Romney over the only viable and truly conservative alternative, the only other candidate who has placed top three in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the only other candidate that has both the poll numbers AND the fundraising ability to mount a real challenge to Flip Romney, the only other candidate with a clear plan to reign in Washington's out-of-control budget, the only other candidate with a serious and powerful on-the-ground organization in key states and districts: Ron Paul.
This is looking more and more like 2008's Democratic Primary: one well-funded, establishment candidate versus one well-organized, reform candidate. If you'll remember, Hillary Clinton lost. She was out-worked and out-organized by Barack Obama's reform candidacy, a candidacy that energized young people, Internet users, and independents. Sound familiar? I'm not saying that Ron Paul will definitely win. I'm just saying that Mitt Romney's chances aren't certain yet either. Ron Paul really could win. Now get on the phone and make it happen! It takes less than five minutes to register and get started with the phone from home program as I've proven in this video where I register on camera for you. In just five more minutes, you could reach ten likely primary voters with your own voice or a prerecorded message from Ron Paul if it goes to their voicemail.
Take the next ten minutes and make it happen!
Editor in Chief, THL
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